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Edmonton Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner (74) makes a save on the Anaheim Ducks during second period NHL action on Saturday, Dec. 17, 2022 at Edmonton. Greg Southam-Postmedia Photo by Greg Southam /Greg Southam
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There are two conundrums wrapped in the mystery of the play of the Edmonton Oilers when Jack Cambell is in net compared to when Stuart Skinner is in net this 2022-23 season.
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By every major statistical category I can find that rates goalie performance, Skinner has been a significantly better than Campbell.
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Not just a bit better. A lot better.
Skinner has had a better glove hand and better positioning. He’s squarer to the puck. He’s been more consistent. He’s let in fewer bad goals.
Yet Skinner’s record is 13 wins and 13 losses, while Campbell’s record is 15 wins and 9 losses.
That’s the 1st Conundrum.
At the same time, the Edmonton Oilers have been two different teams when Skinner and Campbell have been in net. When Skinner is in net, the Oilers appear to play a much looser game, creating more Grade A shots on the attack, but also giving up more Grade A shots in their own end. With Campbell it’s the opposite, fewer Grade A shots for and also fewer Grade A shots against.
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That’s the mystery.
And while the Oilers manufacture a higher rate of Grade A shots when Skinner is net compared to Campbell, they score significantly fewer goals.
With Skinner in net, the Oilers get 14.8 Grade A shots per game and score 3.3 goals per game.
With Campbell in net, the Oilers get 13.9 Grade A shots per game and score 4.1 goals.
That’s the 2nd Conundrum.
The 1st Conundrum
In regards to the 1st Conundrum — why the Oilers win more with Campbell even as Skinner has outplayed him — this does not have to do with quality of competition. It’s not that the Oilers have faced tougher competition with Skinner in goal, leading to more losses. The average points percentage of the 28 teams Skinner has faced is 0.538. The average in Campbell’s 25 games is 0.565.
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Campbell has faced the tougher comp but has the better winning percentage, even as he’s played worse in net himself.
How much worse?
Skinner’s save percentage is .914, Campbell’s .887.
Skinner’s goals against average is 2.92, Campbell’s is 3.34.
At the cult we track major mistakes on goals against, such as the goalie flubbing a saveable shot, kicking out a bad rebound or making a nasty turnover.
Skinner has made just nine such major mistakes on goals against, 0.34 per game, the best we’ve seen since the Cult started tracking this stat in 2008-09.
Campbell has made 0.82 per game, which puts him middle of the pack in Oilers goalies from this era.
The most likely explanation for the 1st Conundrum? I’ll go with the random chance that Skinner has faced off against more hot goalies than Campbell has. It’s got nothing to do with Skinner and Campbell, just how well the opposing goalies have played.
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I’m not saying this is any kind of definitive answer. It’s not. But it’s my best guess.
The Mystery
Why are Skinner’s games more loosey goosey, with more Grade A shots at both ends?
In Skinner’s games, it’s been 14.8 Grade A shots for, 13 against. In Campbell’s, it’s been 13.9 for, 11.3 against.
Could it be with the safer, more solid goalie in net, the Oilers have gone more on the attack and been willing to take more risks? They’re more willing to trade Grade A chances, thinking that Skinner might well save the day with a big save?
And with Campbell in net, they bear down and try to play it tighter on defence?
That’s my working theory on this mystery.
The 2nd Conundrum
Why do the Oilers score fewer goals in games where Skinner starts, even as the team manufactures a higher rate of Grade A shots?
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Again, with Skinner in net, the Oilers get 14.8 Grade A shots per game and score 3.3 goals per game. With Campbell in net, the Oilers get 13.9 Grade A shots per game and score 4.1 goals.
I’ll go back to my theory on the 1st Conundrum, that it comes down to Edmonton facing off against a series of red hot goalies in games where Skinner has started.
The only remaining question is whether or not such trends will continue as the season progresses. One thing that has changed already, of course, is Campbell’s performance. He’s been playing much more solid hockey as of late. He’s certainly cut down on his rate of major mistakes on goals against since he changed his goalie gear.
The good news in all this is that half-way through the 2022-23 season, Edmonton has two goalies bringing at least their “B” game most nights, two goalies who look like they can win some games down the stretch and into the playoffs .
The Oilers didn’t have that last season until Mike Smith got hot in April, and then it was only really one goalie who could be trusted, as Mikko Koskinen failed to shine last year.
Maybe this year the Oilers will have two goalies who can be counted on to win a big game.
Bottom line: Two such solid goalies will dissolve these two conundrums and single mystery into non-issues faster than a Leon Draisaitl harpoon shot.
At the Cult of Hockey
McCURDY: Digging into the Oil’s best streak of the year
STAPLES: Evan Bouchard right on schedule
McCURDY: Player grades as Oilers thump Hawks
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